THE WELL-TH NOTES

By 213 Strategic Partners on March 29, 2024

Weekly data-driven insights on the markets and economy

Fourth Week of March 2024

Looking Up. The S&P 500 rose 0.86% Wednesday to close at a record 5,248.49, while the Dow Jones rose 1.22% to close at 39,760.08. This ended the three-day losing streak for each index. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq rose 0.51% to close at 16,399.52.[i]

Continued Dip. Treasury yields continued to fall as investors weighed the Fed’s comments on rates and the economic outlook. On Wednesday, 10-year yields fell more than 4 bps to 4.19%, and 2-year yields fell nearly 3 bps to 4.57%.[ii]

Francis Scott Key Bridge. The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore is devastating for the lives lost. Focusing solely on the economic impact of this collapse, its immediate cost is $2 million dollars in wages a day and 8,000 jobs. The Port of Baltimore is the U.S.’ largest vehicle handling port, making it a critical port for America’s economy. Between $100 million and $200 million of cargo passes through the port every day. With that cargo coming to standstill, many longshore workers could be unemployed.[iii]

Price Debate. Novo Nordisk charges $935.77 per month for Ozempic in the U.S. before insurance, but a new study suggests the blockbuster drug could be manufactured for less than $5 a month. Researchers found that a month’s supply of the treatment could be manufactured for an estimated 89 cents to $4.73. Demand for diabetes treatment and similar drugs has soared over the last year, even as more insurers drop them from their plans due to cost, leaving some patients unable to afford the drugs.[iv]

Friday Report. Despite markets being closed for Good Friday, investors will be watching the release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. PCE inflation has shown signs of easing since its peak, with the headline PCE index recording a 2.4% year-over-year increase in January 2024, the smallest in over 3 years. Investors anxiously await to see if the recent spikes in the consumer price index will mirror in the February PCE data.[v]

Half Time. Bitcoin halving reduces the rate at which new coins are created, lowering the available amount of new supply. As of March 2024, about 19.65 million bitcoins were in circulation, leaving just around 1.35 million to be released via mining rewards. The next bitcoin halving is expected to occur in April 2024, when the block reward will fall to 3.125 BTC. The final halving is expected to occur in 2140, when the number of bitcoins circulating will reach the theoretical maximum supply of 21 million.[vi]

Incidents Report. United Airlines saw eight plane incidents within two weeks, five of which involved airplanes made by Boeing, a manufacturer that is already under intense scrutiny and changing leadership. United, one of the world’s largest airlines, flies aircraft manufactured mainly by Boeing and Airbus. Most of the incidents reported in these two weeks required emergency landings or diversions. In United’s response to customers, CEO Scott Kirby, wrote that while the recent incidents were unrelated, they were “reminders of the importance of safety.”[vii]

Nobody’s Perfect. After the first round of the NCAA Men’s basketball tournament, ESPN said there were no remaining perfect brackets on its site, out of the 22,114,647 entries. The NCAA says there are no unblemished brackets remaining in its own game, CBS’ or Yahoo’s. 8 double-digit seeds advanced to the second round of the tournament – probably the main reason everyone’s brackets have been upset.[viii]

[i] Kailai Han, Lisa and Alex Harring, “Dow surges more than 450 points, S&P 500 closes at a fresh record: Live updates,” CNBC, March 27, 2024, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/26/stock-market-today-live-updates.html. Accessed March 28, 2024.

[ii] Kailai Han, Lisa and Sophie Kinderlin, “Treasury yields slide as investors weigh economic outlook,” CNBC, March 27, 2024, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/27/us-treasury-yields-as-investors-weigh-economic-outlook.html. Accessed March 28, 2024.

[iii] Venugopal Ramaswamy, Swapna and Paul Davidson, “$2 million a day in wages: The devastating Baltimore bridge collapse will have sweeping economic impacts,” USA Today, March 28, 2024, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/03/28/baltimore-bridge-collapse-economic-cost/73117309007/. Accessed March 28, 2024.

[iv] Kim Constantino, Annika, “Novo Nordisk’s $1,000 diabetes drug Ozempic can be made for less than $5 a month, study suggests,” CNBC, March 27, 2024, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/27/novo-nordisk-ozempic-can-be-made-for-less-than-5-a-month-study.html. Accessed March 28, 2024.

[v] Benzinga, “Investors On Edge With Consumer Inflation Data Due Friday, Rate Cut Hopes Hang In The Balance,” Business Insider, March 27, 2024, https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/etf/investors-on-edge-with-consumer-inflation-data-due-friday-rate-cut-hopes-hang-in-the-balance-1033202185. Accessed March 28, 2024.

[vi] Conway, Luke, “What Is Bitcoin Halving? Definition, How It Works, Why It Matters,’ Investopedia, March 6, 2024, https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769#:%7E:text=A%20Bitcoin%20halving%20event%20occurs,block%20reward%20of%206.25%20BTC. Accessed March 28, 2024.

[vii] Chung, Christine, “8 Incidents in 2 Weeks: What’s Going on With United’s Planes?,” The New York Times, March 18, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/18/travel/united-airlines-boeing-airplane-safety.html. Accessed March 28, 2024.

[viii] Evans, Jace, “Are there any perfect brackets left in March Madness? Nope. Upsets knock everyone out.,” March 22, 2024, https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2024/03/22/march-madness-perfect-brackets-remaining/73073364007/. Accessed March 28, 2024.